The theory of Kondratiev cycles. Kondratiev, Nikolai Dmitrievich N d Kondratiev biography briefly

KONDRATIEV, NIKOLAY DMITRIEVICH(18921938) Soviet economist, creator of the concept of long waves of economic conditions (“Kondratieff cycles”).

N.D. Kondratyev was born into a peasant family in the village of Galuevskaya, Kostroma province. While a student at the Church Teachers' Seminary, he joined the Socialist Revolutionary Party in 1905. For his revolutionary activities he was expelled from the seminary and spent several months in prison. In 1911, having passed the matriculation exams as an external student, he entered the economics department of the Faculty of Law of St. Petersburg University. Among his teachers was M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky, who passed on to his student an interest in the problems of economic development. During his studies, Kondratiev continued to participate in the revolutionary movement; in 1913 he was arrested again and spent a month in prison. After graduating from the university in 1915, he remained at the university in the department of political economy to prepare for a professorship.

In 1917, Kondratiev actively participated in political life; he worked as A.F. Kerensky’s secretary for agricultural affairs, and was a member of the last Provisional Government as Deputy Minister of Food. After the Bolsheviks came to power, he first sought to fight them, but then began to cooperate with the new authorities, believing that an honest and qualified economist could serve his country under any regime. In 1919, Kondratiev left the Socialist Revolutionary Party, completely abandoned politics and focused on purely scientific activities.

In 1920, Professor Kondratiev became director of the Moscow Market Research Institute under the People's Commissariat of Finance. At the same time, he taught at the Timiryazev Agricultural Academy, and also worked at the People's Commissariat of Agriculture as head of the department of economics and agricultural planning. The years of the NEP saw the heyday of his scientific activity. In 1925 Kondratiev published his work Large market cycles, which immediately sparked discussions, first in the USSR and then abroad.

The works of the Institute of Market Studies, which he headed, quickly gained worldwide fame. He was elected a member of many foreign economic and statistical societies, he was personally acquainted or corresponded with the greatest economists of his time - W. Mitchell, A. S. Kuznets, I. Fisher, J. M. Keynes.

In 1920 and 1922, Kondratiev was arrested twice on political charges. With the end of the NEP, the “peaceful coexistence” of non-Marxist economists with the Soviet regime also ended. In 1928, “Kondratievism” was declared the ideology of the restoration of capitalism. In 1929, Kondratiev was fired from the Market Research Institute, and in 1930 he was arrested, declaring him the head of the non-existent underground “Labor Peasant Party”. In 1931 he was sentenced to 8 years in prison; he wrote his last scientific works in the Butyrka prison and the Suzdal political isolation ward. In 1938, when his term of imprisonment was ending, a new trial was organized over the seriously ill scientist, which ended in a sentence of death. Only in 1987 was he posthumously rehabilitated.

In world economic science, he is known primarily as the author of the concept of “long waves,” in which he developed the idea of a plurality of economic cycles.

In a market economy, Kondratiev believed, in addition to the well-known medium-term cycles (8-12 years), there are also long-term cycles (50-55 years) - “big waves of market conditions.” He processed statistical materials (price dynamics, loan interest, wages, foreign trade indicators, production volumes of the main types of industrial products) for the 1780-1920s for countries such as England, France, Germany, the USA, as well as for the world as a whole farm. During the analyzed period of time, Kondratiev identified two complete large cycles (from the 1780s to the 1840s and from the 1850s to the 1890s) and the beginning of the third (from the 1900s). Since each cycle consisted of boom and bust phases, he was able to essentially predict the Great Depression of 1929-1933 several years before it began.

The concept of “long waves” became especially popular in the second half of the 20th century, when economists began to pay special attention to global and long-term trends in economic life. The half-century cycles he studied are called “Kondratiev cycles” in modern science.

Kondratiev’s works on the problems of the Soviet economy are known today much less than his studies on “long waves,” although their scientific significance is also very great.

According to Kondratiev, the state can and should influence the national economy through planning. Kondratiev should be considered the founder of the theory and practice of indicative (recommendatory) planning, introduced in the post-war decades at the insistence of Keynesians in almost all developed Western countries.

Under his leadership, a long-term plan for the development of agriculture and forestry in the RSFSR for 1923–1928 (“Kondratieff’s agricultural five-year plan”) was developed, based on the principle of combining planned and market principles. Kondratiev believed that an effective agricultural sector could ensure the growth of the entire economy, including industry. Therefore, the planning concept he proposed assumed a balanced and simultaneous rise in both the industrial and agricultural sectors.

Kondratiev criticized directive (command-order) planning, which was advocated not only by “Marxist-orthodox” Soviet economists, but also by the top party leadership. His critical forecasts were justified: the first five-year plan became a policy of plundering agriculture for the sake of the rise of heavy industry, but the original plans were never fully implemented. It was the criticism of directive planning that became the pretext for political reprisals against Kondratiev.

Kondratiev is deservedly considered the most outstanding Russian economist of the Soviet period. By decision of UNESCO, 1992 was celebrated throughout the world as the year of his memory.

Proceedings: Problems of economic dynamics. M.: Economics, 1989; Basic problems of economic statics and dynamics: Preliminary sketch. M.: Nauka, 1991; The grain market and its regulation during war and revolution. M.: Nauka, 1991; Selected Works. M.: Economics, 1993; Dissenting opinion: Selected works in 2 books. M.: Nauka, 1993.

Materials on the Internet: http://russcience.euro.ru/papers/mak89nk.htm;

http://www.marketing.cfin.ru/read/article/a45.htm.

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratyev was born into a large peasant family on March 4, 1892. He grew up in the village of Galuevskaya, which is located in the Kostroma Province. As a child, he studied at a parochial school, and then continued his studies by entering the church-teachers seminary in 1905. That same year, Nikolai joined the Socialist Revolutionary Party.

A year later, he was expelled from the church-teacher seminary for revolutionary ideas and propaganda, and Kondratiev spent several months in prison for his political views and lack of trustworthiness.

In 1911, Nikolai Dmitrievich was given a certificate confirming his maturity; for this he passed an exam as an external student. After that, he entered the economics department of the law faculty at St. Petersburg University.
Kondratiev participates in the February Revolution of 1917, after which his political career rises sharply. At the All-Russian Democratic Conference in September 1917, Kondratiev was elected to Parliament. Shortly before the October Revolution, Nikolai Dmitrievich was appointed Comrade Minister of Food of the Provisional Government. After the establishment of Soviet power, he held various positions in the economic sphere.

In 1918, Kondratiev moved to Moscow, he completely abandoned his former political activities, left the essays and focused only on scientific activities. In 1920, Professor Kondratiev became director of the Moscow Institute of Market Studies.

In August 1920, he was arrested on political charges, but a month later he was released thanks to the joint efforts of A.V. Chayanov and I.A. Teodorovich. From 1920 to 1923, Kondratyev was head of the department of agricultural economics and policy.

In Russia, the professor was little known, however, among the foreign circle of specialists, he was known and respected. The scientist subjected him to severe criticism. The senior party leadership reacted negatively to Kondratiev's disapproval and, in 1928, he was removed from his post as director of the institute.

In 1930 he was arrested, and two years later he was sentenced to eight years in prison. During Stalin's pre-war repressions, Nikolai Dmitrievich was sentenced to death. On September 17, 1938, the sentence was carried out. Kondratiev was buried in Kommunar (Moscow region).

Kondratieff cycles

Kondratiev created the theory of large cycles, which was as follows: all war revolutions begin due to certain economic conditions in the state.

Shocks in the social sphere occur most easily under the pressure of new economic forces.

The main life achievement of Nikolai Dmitrievich, his theory about economic cycles, is expressed as follows:

There are four types of economic cycles:

Seasonal (duration less than one year).
Short (lasting about three years).
Middle (from seven to eleven years old).
Large (from forty-eight to fifty-five years).

Periods of “lowering” during the wave are characterized by a sharp depression in agriculture. During the “upward” wave of each major cycle, the most active social upheavals occur.

Kondratieff's theory of large cycles

Kondratiev cycles (also known as “Kondratiev’s theory of large cycles”) are patterns of development of the world economy in the long term. The cycle is based on a period of 50 years, while deviations of an average of 10 years are acceptable; the average Kondratiev cycle lasts 45-60 years.

Kondratieff's large cycles correlate with cyclical systems developed by other economists, most notably with the medium-term cycles of Juglar and Kuznets.

The Kondratieff cycle can be conditionally divided into two large phases of increase and decrease, a more accurate forecast of the duration of which is given when combined with the above-mentioned medium-term cyclical forecasts.

During a cycle change, profound changes in economic activity are noted; this may be due to the emergence of new technologies, changes in geopolitical zones of influence, revolutions that have occurred or deep crises, after which the gradual construction of a new economic model begins. There is also a pattern in the occurrence of major wars of global significance during changing cycles.

The increasing phase of the cycle marks a gradual increase in production, the development of labor productivity, the world market; crises during this period are short-term and insignificant for the economic system.

When the wave decreases, the opposite is observed - frequent instability arises with the risk of collapse of the global economy.

There are also 4 patterns of the cycle:

First, before the start of the upward wave of each major cycle, significant changes are observed in the conditions of the economic life of society: technical inventions and discoveries, changes in the conditions of monetary circulation, the strengthening of the role of new countries in world economic life.

The second is that periods of upward waves in large cycles are, as a rule, much richer in major social upheavals and upheavals in the life of society (revolutions, wars) than periods of downward waves.

Third, the downward waves of these large cycles are accompanied by long-term depression in agriculture.

Fourth - large cycles of economic conditions are revealed in the same unified process of economic development dynamics, in which medium cycles with their phases of recovery, crisis and depression are also identified.

Kondratiev's 1st cycle begins after the final victory of the industrial revolution and the formation of bourgeois society and represents the period 1803-1843. According to this dating, in the first decades of the 21st century we live at the junction of the 5th and 6th cycles, the latter, according to forecast, begins in the mid-2010s (opinion: 5th cycle - from 1981-1983 to ~2018). These cycles appeared after the final establishment of mass production, they are characterized by the deployment, development of technology, electronics, computer and nanotechnologies, the gradual introduction of robotics with the subsequent convergence of the latest technologies (4th industrial revolution?).

With each new cycle, the financial system acquires a more complex structure. The 4th and 5th cycles were characterized by the gradual globalization of markets, that is, the ability to quickly move assets between countries, as well as the lack of demand for cash on a large scale (new technologies make it possible to switch to electronic payment methods, ATMs and plastic cards appear).

The 5th cycle also saw the collapse of the established political system of the superpowers (USSR and the USA), followed by the involvement of the former socialist camp in a single world economy. The expected change of cycles entails a systemic crisis in the world economy, and a revision of the economic system is possible.

The effectiveness of Kondratieff cycles in forecasting economic development is not recognized by all economists. Long-term Kondratieff cycles are focused primarily on the modern economy, formed after the victory of the industrial revolution, and may be interrupted in the future with a possible transition to other economic, technological and geopolitical models.

— Nikolay Kondratyev
— The theory of Nikolai Kondratiev
— Kondratieff waves
— The relationship between Kondratieff waves and technological structures
— Limitations of the Kondratieff model
— Where we are and what to expect in the future
- Conclusion

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev- Russian economist. Founder of the theory of economic cycles, known as “Kondratiev Cycles”.

Theoretically substantiated the “new economic policy” in the USSR. Born on March 4 (16), 1892 in the village of Galuevskaya, Kineshma district, Kostroma province. On June 19, 1930, he was arrested by the OGPU on false charges.

On September 17, 1938, the Military Collegium of the Supreme Court of the USSR sentenced him to death and was executed on the same day. Twice posthumously rehabilitated - in 1963 and 1987.

Nikolai Kondratiev's theory

The theory is that along with short- and medium-term economic cycles, there are economic cycles lasting about 45-55 years. The concept of large economic cycles indicates periods:

I cycle – from the beginning of the 90s. XVIII century until 1844-1951;
II cycle – from the beginning of 1844-1951. until 1890-1896;
III cycle – from 1890-1896. until 1914-1920

N.D. Kondratiev explained the existence of large economic cycles by the fact that the duration of functioning of various created economic goods is not the same. Equally, their creation requires different times and different means. As a rule, bridges, roads, buildings and other infrastructure have the longest period of operation.

They also require the most time and the most accumulated capital to create them. Hence it is necessary to introduce the concept of different types of equilibrium in relation to different periods of time. Large cycles can be viewed as disruption and restoration of economic equilibrium over a long period.

Their main reason lies in the mechanism of accumulation, accumulation and dispersion of capital sufficient to create new elements of infrastructure. However, the effect of this main cause is enhanced by the action of secondary factors. The beginning of the rise (“upward wave”) coincides with the moment when accumulation reaches a state in which it becomes possible to profitably invest capital to create new fixed assets.

The rise is accompanied by complications caused by the industrial crisis of the medium-term cycle. A decrease in the pace of economic life (“downward wave”), caused by an accumulating set of negative economic factors, in turn, causes an intensification of searches in the field of creating advanced technology and the concentration of capital in the hands of industrial and financial groups.

All this creates the preconditions for a new upsurge, and it is repeated again, albeit at a new stage in the development of productive forces. In accordance with the theory of N.D. Kondratiev, the beginning of the rise in the new large economic cycle occurred in the mid-40s, and the next one will occur in the mid-90s.

Kondratieff waves

Kondratieff waves are the longest waves of the economic cycle after the Kitchin, Juglar and Kuznets waves, their duration is 40–60 years.

Kondratieff’s theory was developed empirically based on the analysis of statistical data from the US and European economies from the beginning of the 19th century and still does not have a strict scientific basis. There are different points of view among the explanations for wave development. According to a number of scientists, it takes 40–60 years from a significant scientific discovery to real innovation in production.

There is also no single view on the periods of Kondratieff waves. The most widespread definition is: the first cycle - 1803-1847, the second - 1847-1891, the third - 1891-1934, the fourth - 1934-1978. The fifth cycle is now ongoing, which began approximately in 1978 and is projected to end in 2022.

It is customary to distinguish the following phases of the Kondratieff cycle.

First phase – the economic growth, implementation of inventions and discoveries made at the previous stage. This phase is characterized by high levels of inflation and interest rates.

Second phase – peak, maximum growth, high level of liberalism in the economy. In addition, historically, the second phase was associated with world wars and disasters, and therefore with a certain number of government orders and a reduction in consumption in the non-productive sphere. From a technological point of view, this period is characterized by a large number of not major discoveries, but improvements.

Third phase – decline. There may still be some growth in the early stages, driven by cost cutting. But after some time the trend reverses. The economy is overheated and the market is saturated. Competition is intensifying, resulting in numerous administrative barriers, including customs ones. Interest rates decrease and inflation may become negative, meaning prices decrease.

Fourth and final phase – depression. There is a significant slowdown or even a complete stop in GDP growth. Interest rates are low, but demand for credit is at a minimum. Inflation is at its lowest level, but demand for goods and services is also low. This is the worst phase of the economic cycle, but it is during this period, according to experts, that the most important scientific and technological discoveries are made, which should become an incentive to move forward and start a new cycle.

From the point of view of the theory of Kondratieff waves, today the world is in the fourth phase. This phase is accompanied by global financial crises. Authorities responsible for monetary policy reduce interest rates to almost zero levels, as is happening, for example, in the USA and Japan at the end of 2011 - beginning of 2012.

The relationship between Kondratieff waves and technological structures

1st cycle— textile factories, industrial use of coal.

2nd cycle— coal mining and ferrous metallurgy, railway construction, steam engine.

3rd cycle— heavy engineering, electric power, inorganic chemistry, steel and electric motors.

4th cycle- production of cars and other machines, chemical industry, oil refining and internal combustion engines, mass production.

5th cycle— development of electronics, robotics, computing, laser and telecommunications technology.

6th cycle— perhaps NBIC-convergence (convergence of nano-, bio-, information and cognitive technologies).

Based on his research, N.D. Kondratiev made a number of conclusions:

Before the beginning of the upward wave of each major cycle, significant transformations occur in the socio-economic processes, which are expressed in the emergence of significant scientific discoveries, technical inventions, changes in the sphere of production and exchange.

Periods of rising cycles of market waves are usually accompanied by major social upheavals (revolutions, wars).

The downward waves of these cycles are associated with long-term depression in agriculture.

“...wars and revolutions arise on the basis of real, and above all economic conditions... on the basis of an increase in the pace and tension of economic life, intensification of economic competition for markets and raw materials... Social upheavals arise most easily precisely during the period of rapid onslaught of new economic forces"

N.D.Kondratiev

Limitations of the Kondratiev Model

It should be noted that, despite the importance of the cyclical development of society revealed by N. D. Kondratiev for forecasting problems, his model (like any stochastic model) only studies the behavior of the system in a fixed (closed) environment. Such models do not always answer questions related to the nature of the system itself, the behavior of which is being studied.

It is well known that the behavior of a system is an important aspect in its study. However, no less important, and perhaps even the most important, are aspects of the system associated with its genesis, structural (gestalt) aspects, aspects of the complementarity of the logic of the system with its subject, etc. They allow us to correctly pose the question of the reasons for this or that type of behavior system depending, for example, on the external environment in which it operates.

Kondratiev cycles in this sense are just a consequence (result) of the system’s reaction to the current external environment. The question of revealing the nature of the process of such a reaction today and revealing the factors that influence the behavior of systems is relevant. Especially when many, based on the results of N.D. Kondratiev and S.P. Kapitsa on the compression of time, predict a more or less rapid transition of society to a period of permanent crisis.

Where are we and what to expect in the future

Many reputable economists agree that the winter cycle really began in 2000 (at least, all events point to exactly this scenario), which means only one thing - today we are on the threshold of a new long Kondratieff cycle. This point of view is indirectly confirmed by the following events:

After the rapid collapse (2014 and 2015), commodity prices have stabilized;

In developed countries, after prolonged deflation, consumer prices began to rise;

The Fed began to gradually raise rates;

Demand for “paper” gold is declining;

After a long winter, the financial sector recovered.

In addition, a new Kondratieff cycle is always accompanied by the emergence of new technologies, i.e. at the end of autumn, these developments are of a “piecemeal” nature, are expensive and are a tool for speculation; in the winter they become much cheaper (thanks to new discoveries) and by spring they are ready for mass implementation.

Today, biological and medical technologies (cloning, growing artificial organs, etc.), alternative energy, and new materials are claiming this role (for example, at the end of 2016, scientists managed to obtain metallic hydrogen for the first time). Plus, the rapid development of the space industry cannot be ignored.

In addition, social sentiment also points to spring; in particular, Donald Trump won the US elections, whose election program included items related to infrastructure modernization. It is unknown how exactly such promises will be fulfilled, but something else is important here - in American society there has been a demand for the implementation of appropriate programs.

Conclusion

From all of the above, according to Kondratieff’s theory, we can conclude that, in the period 2018-2025. a new Kondratieff cycle is expected. If this forecast comes true, investors will soon begin to invest their capital in the real sector. It is difficult to imagine how these events will affect specific currency pairs, but it is safe to say that strong trends will form much more often on Forex.

The material was prepared by Dilyara specifically for the site

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Economists by the grace of God: Nikolai Kondratiev

In connection with the pulsating global crisis, social scientists are increasingly recalling the “great cycles” of economic conditions, named after the Russian scientist who discovered them Nikolai Kondratiev(1892-1938). He also did a lot to develop a methodology for planning and forecasting the Soviet economy, ways to transform agriculture and organize agricultural production.

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On this topic:

Nikolai Kondratyev with his daughter Elena

A native of the village of Galuevskaya, Kineshma district, Kostroma province, coming from a large peasant family, he managed in a few years to complete a church-teachers seminary, evening courses in St. Petersburg and prepare to take external exams for a full course at the gymnasium. In September 1911 he entered the Faculty of Economics of St. Petersburg University. And by the end of 1913 he completed his first major study devoted to the development of the economy of the Kineshma zemstvo.

25-year-old Kondratiev enthusiastically greets the February Revolution and serves as Secretary of Agriculture in the Provisional Government. Actively participates in the creation of the All-Russian Council of Peasant Deputies and makes presentations on the food issue. Elected as a delegate to the Constituent Assembly on the list of the Socialist Revolutionary Party. Two weeks before the October Revolution, Kondratiev was appointed comrade (deputy) chairman of the National Food Committee in the last cabinet of the Provisional Government.

Nikolai Kondratyev in his student years

In his works published in the spring-summer of 1917, Kondratiev develops and substantiates the Socialist Revolutionary program for the socialization of the land, believes that the future belongs to large-scale cooperative farming, but at a meeting of the Main Land Committee he makes an interesting reservation: “The principle of economic policy should be the following: acceptable and “Only those measures of influence are desirable that enhance the productivity of the national economy and are as close as possible to the legal consciousness of the masses.”

Kondratiev perceives the October Revolution as a coup, destructive in its results. At first, he even participates in the work of the underground Provisional Government and refuses to transfer the food business to Soviet power, declaring that “the disintegration of the apparatus, the destruction and disruption of the telegraph and railway transport poses insurmountable obstacles in the field of supplying the population with basic necessities.” However, later Kondratiev’s attitude towards the Bolsheviks changed. After his exit from the Socialist Revolutionary Party, cooperation with the new government became possible. This is a curious fact. During a trip abroad in 1924 (taken to study the organization of agricultural production), Kondratiev met in the United States with Pitirim Sorokin, who had moved there, with whom he had been friends since his school years. He persuaded him to head the department at one of the universities. Kondratyev did not accept the offer. He believed that a qualified and honest economist could serve his country under any regime...

After moving to Moscow at the beginning of 1918, Kondratyev carried out teaching and scientific work, became the initiator and first head of the economic department of the Central Partnership of Flax Growers (Lnocenter), the chairman of which was the famous economist Alexei Chayanov. He is a member of the Village Council - the governing body of the association of agricultural cooperatives in Russia. In the spring of 1921, the scientist was invited to the People's Commissariat of Agriculture to the responsible position of head of the department of economics and agricultural planning.

The years of NEP saw the heyday of Nikolai Kondratiev’s scientific activity. He writes a lot, considering the patterns of the contemporary domestic and world economy. In his opinion, a market economy is never in a state of perfect equilibrium. It may be provided in theory, but does not exist in reality. The economy is subject to wave-like fluctuations, during which the level of equilibrium itself changes. Kondratiev processed statistical materials (price dynamics, loan interest, wages, foreign trade volume, production of main types of industrial products) from 1780 to 1920 for four leading countries - England, France, Germany, and the USA. The dynamics of coal mining and iron smelting were also taken into account using global production indices. Most of the data taken revealed the presence of cyclical waves lasting 48-55 years (also called 40-60 years). During this time, there is a change in the supply of basic material goods, as a result of which the world productive forces rise to a new level of development. The period of statistical observations and analysis of the scientist was a maximum of 140 years (less according to some databases). During this period of time, studied by Kondratiev, by the mid-20s there were two and a half completed large cycles: from the 1780s to the 1840s, from the 1850s to the 1890s, and the beginning of the third - from the 1900s.

Nikolay Kondratyev and Pitirim Sorokin

Large cycles are not always uniform, but they reproduce the same dynamics. First, there is an “upward” wave (production, prices and profits rise, crises turn out to be shallow, and depressions are short-lived). Then comes the “downward” wave. Economic growth is unstable, crises are becoming more frequent, depressions are protracted. The periods of the downward wave of each major cycle are accompanied by a long-term and particularly pronounced depression in agriculture, manifested in falling prices for its products and a reduction in land rent.

“Each new cycle takes place in new specific historical conditions, at a new level of development of productive forces, and therefore is not at all a simple repetition of the previous cycle.” It is precisely this thought of Nikolai Kondratiev that liberal economists will never assimilate, since for them the world economy develops not cyclically, but linearly. That is why they cannot understand why the methods they practice to combat crisis phenomena turn out to be effective only in the phases of revival and recovery. On the downward wave of large cycles, during periods of recession and depression, they act in the opposite direction.

Despite the rather high market conditions observed in the 1920s in the main capitalist countries, Kondratiev considered this decade to be the beginning of the next downward wave, which was soon confirmed in the dramatic events of the global economic crisis of 1929-1933.

The USSR was able to make the most of the Great Depression and carry out a complete modernization and industrialization of its economy (at what cost is another question), which made it possible to win the Great Patriotic War, create the basis for the nuclear industry, win the space exploration competition and achieve military parity with the United States. But the USSR, having relaxed on petrodollars, failed to take advantage of the next downward wave of the 70s and 80s. As a result, he was defeated in the economic competition with world capitalism.

According to some experts, modern Russia could take advantage of the crisis situation of the downward wave of the fifth cycle, seize the civilizational initiative and act as an architect of the “world after the dollar,” leading countries interested in a new economic system (including Europe, Japan, China, India, Brazil , South Korea and others).

But let’s return to Kondratiev’s agricultural research. At the Petrovsky Academy, he - a private associate professor and then a professor - became the head of the laboratory of agricultural conditions, soon renamed the Institute of Market Research. At the beginning, there are only five employees on staff: a director, a deputy and three statisticians. But soon the institute became a serious research center, publishing the journal “Economic Bulletin” and the periodical collection “Questions of the Market”. Kondratyev already has 50 highly qualified specialists working under him. The institute's research is distinguished by the unity of in-depth analysis and developments aimed at solving specific issues, and the widespread use of the achievements of scientific thought of that time, including statistical and mathematical methods. The employees worked with great dedication and enthusiasm. Their materials were widely used by government agencies. At the request of the Central Committee of the All-Union Communist Party of Bolsheviks, the All-Russian Central Executive Committee, the Council of People's Commissars, the Supreme Economic Council, the People's Commissariat of Finance, and the People's Commissariat of Agriculture, the institute prepared numerous notes and certificates, their number reaching two hundred per year.

With the active participation of the scientist, the Planning Commission of the People's Commissariat of Agriculture of the RSFSR developed the first-ever long-term plan for the development of agriculture and forestry (1923−1928), which went down in history as the “Kondratiev Five-Year Plan.” He then put forward the idea of a close connection and balance between the agricultural and industrial sectors, for which he proposed using both directive (guiding) and indicative (indicative) indicators. One can rightfully call Kondratiev the main developer of the concept of a forecast plan as one of the options for indicative (recommendatory) planning, implemented in many Western countries after the Second World War. In the mid-20s, the scientist’s ideas finally took shape in the concept of equilibrium economic development. Only “healthy growth of agriculture,” wrote Kondratiev, “suggests... powerful development of industry.” An effective agricultural sector must ensure the growth of the entire economy and become a guarantor of the sustainability of the national economy. The government was asked to direct its efforts and attention primarily to the rise of the agricultural sector, whose needs for technical equipment would be satisfied by industry.

From the researcher’s point of view, for rational farming, a peasant must freely dispose of his land: rent it out, put it into circulation, etc. Strongly opposing the legacy of war communism - restrictions on freedom in land use, Kondratiev proposed helping strong farms move to intensive and commercial ones forms similar in type to farmer ones. It is this model that has significant production capabilities and is capable of ensuring a rapid increase in the volume of marketable bread, including export supplies.

Classifying strong, intensively developing family labor farms as kulaks will inevitably lead to a fight against them, but only they are capable of becoming the basis for economic growth in the country. Kondratiev considered the desire of the Bolshevik government to direct material resources to support first the poor and low-income middle peasants, that is, weak farms, as unjustified. It will be possible to really help them only when commodity production in the countryside becomes stronger.

In the 1920s, Kondratiev worked hard on the theory of national economic plans. He viewed the market as a link between the nationalized, cooperative and private sectors. The purpose of the plan was, firstly, to ensure faster growth of productive forces than with spontaneous development, and secondly, to ensure that the growth of the national economy was balanced. A reasonable combination of market and planned principles in the economic life of the country seemed to Kondratiev quite suitable for all sectors.

In the article “Plan and Foresight”, the scientist sharply criticizes the separation of the goals set by the government from the possibilities available in real life, the development of so-called “bold plans”. “At best they will remain harmless because they are dead to practice. At worst, they will be harmful because they can lead the practice into serious mistakes.” In a number of speeches, he warned about the consequences of voluntarism, leading to the destruction of agriculture and the inevitable subsequent deterioration of the situation on the commodity market and in industry.

Commemorative medal in honor of Nikolai Kondratiev

In general, Kondratiev’s merit in the field of planning was that he developed a coherent concept of a conscious and careful impact on the economy. It is not surprising that this came at the wrong time during the years of the “great turning point.” At a conference of Marxist agrarians, the theory of equilibrium developed by Kondratiev and his associates was criticized and called a “bourgeois prejudice.”

The scientist stubbornly defended his position during the discussion of the draft five-year plan for the development of the national economy, which was drawn up under the leadership of the famous Soviet economist and statistician Stanislav Strumilin. At the beginning of 1927, the severity of the situation was determined by several points: firstly, the exceptional importance of the problems under consideration for the future of the country, secondly, by the fact that behind the differences on a number of theoretical and practical issues there were differences of a methodological and even ideological nature, thirdly , limited choice of solutions due to political and ideological attitudes.

Kondratiev, of course, imagined the likely consequences of public controversy for himself, but he sharply criticized the developed document. Science is not able to give a reliable, quantitatively expressed forecast of changes in many economic indicators for any distant future. Therefore, such plans can contain only the most general guidelines characterizing the main directions of development.

The scientist emphasized the need to harmonize the goals for accelerated industrialization with the tasks of agriculture, without the solution of which successful economic growth and social development in the future are impossible. He spoke about the special importance of light industry, the products of which are the material basis that ensures the inclusion of the peasantry in general economic turnover. He pointed out the importance of balancing the effective demand of the population and the available supply of consumer goods, growing real wages and increasing labor productivity.

In 1926-27, Kondratiev tried to defend his position on the pages of economic journals and in the stands of meetings (his speeches at the Communist Academy in November 1926 in connection with the development of the bill “On the Basic Principles of Land Use and Land Management” and a report at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Federation had a wide resonance Association of Research Institutes of Social Sciences in March 1927), as well as in a memorandum to the Central Committee “Tasks in the field of agriculture in connection with the development of the national economy and its industrialization.” It was the latter work that served as the reason for the appearance in the magazine “Bolshevik” (No. 13, 1927) of an article by Grigory Zinoviev, which contained political and ideological assessments of the position of the author and his supporters and largely determined the direction and nature of future actions against the scientist and his like-minded people. Kondratiev’s point of view was called the “manifesto of the kulak party”; he himself was declared the leader of the “liberal Ustryalovism” and the head of an entire school that united “neo-populists” (Chayanov, Chelintsev, Makarov) and “liberal bourgeois” (Studensky, Litoshenko). Despite the fact that Zinoviev himself was soon expelled from the party as one of the leaders of the Trotskyist opposition and ostracized, his guidelines remained in service.

The main blow was aimed against Kondratiev’s views on planning and management, the development of agriculture and industry, and the concept of large cycles. His position was regarded as aimed at disrupting industrialization and collectivization, protecting the kulaks, attacking the poorest strata of the peasantry, restoring capitalism and subordinating the national economy to the world market. Even such a seemingly obvious statement that the growth of real wages should be made closely dependent on increases in labor productivity was considered by leftist critics to be evidence of a desire to lower the standard of living of workers. And the scientist’s statement about the impossibility of specifying the exact date of the collapse of capitalism and counting on it in the near future was declared a toast in honor of the system that was to be sent to the scrapheap.

In 1928, Kondratiev was fired from the Market Research Institute, which was soon closed. In 1931, the scientist was sentenced to eight years in prison and sent to a political isolation ward located in the Suzdal Spaso-Evthymius Monastery. Here, too, he continued his scientific work, despite the fact that he was becoming increasingly weaker and losing his sight.

On September 17, 1938, according to the verdict of the Military Collegium of the Supreme Court, Nikolai Kondratyev was shot.

Only half a century later he, along with other scientists involved in the case of the “labor peasant party” (which never existed), was completely rehabilitated. The names of major economists and their works were returned to the people, history, and science.

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev lived 46 years. But it was truly a “big cycle” that left a bright mark in the history of domestic and world science. Fate allowed only 15 years for his creative life - from graduation to his arrest. But during this short time he wrote works that testify to the originality of his mind and encyclopedic education.

1992, when the 100th anniversary of Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev was celebrated, was declared by UNESCO as the year of memory of the great Russian scientist.